Bidermann's Escape
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 236 (55 on the archive and 181 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 123
Defender wins (Russian): 113
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1178 | 26% | 2024-10-14 | | Lost |
| 995 | 1000 | 49% | 2024-07-12 | | Won |
| 1271 | 995 | 83% | 2024-01-13 | | Lost |
| 974 | 988 | 48% | 2024-01-12 | | Lost |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2022-09-11 | | Won |
| 1217 | 1000 | 78% | 2021-06-18 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1036 | 51% | 2021-03-17 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2020-06-12 | | Lost |
| 1129 | 1000 | 68% | 2020-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1216 | 27% | 2020-02-08 | | Won |
| 988 | 1185 | 24% | 2020-01-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2019-11-30 | | Won |
| 1059 | 998 | 59% | 2019-02-08 | | Won |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2018-08-04 | | Won |
| 1153 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-07-20 | | Won |
| 1158 | 1128 | 54% | 2016-11-06 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1059 | 39% | 2016-05-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1212 | 23% | 2015-01-24 | | Lost |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2015-01-24 | | Lost |
| 836 | 1035 | 24% | 2015-01-23 | | Won |
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2014-04-12 | | Won |
| 1046 | 1013 | 55% | 2014-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 2013-10-25 | | Lost |
| 1042 | 1000 | 56% | 2013-05-18 | | Won |
| 1271 | 1000 | 83% | 2013-05-11 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1018 | 62% | 2013-04-13 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1018 | 62% | 2013-04-13 | | Won |
| 1230 | 1000 | 79% | 2012-12-12 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2012-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2012-10-03 | | Won |
| 1099 | 836 | 82% | 2012-05-30 | | Won |
| 1094 | 1000 | 63% | 2012-02-24 | | Lost |
| 1032 | 889 | 69% | 2011-10-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1089 | 37% | 2010-11-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 2010-10-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 2010-10-07 | | Lost |
| 851 | 1019 | 28% | 2010-08-21 | | Lost |
| 1139 | 1089 | 57% | 2010-08-01 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1077 | 60% | 2010-07-12 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 1146 | 40% | 2010-06-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2010-06-27 | | Lost |
| 851 | 1000 | 30% | 2010-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1079 | 39% | 2010-02-27 | | Lost |
| 1225 | 1212 | 52% | 2010-01-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2009-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1285 | 1000 | 84% | 2009-09-11 | | Won |
| 1059 | 943 | 66% | 2009-07-10 | | Won |
| 1059 | 943 | 66% | 2009-07-10 | | Won |
| 986 | 1041 | 42% | 2009-06-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2009-03-10 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 2008-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1158 | 1000 | 71% | 2008-08-29 | | Won |
| 1068 | 942 | 67% | 2008-06-23 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1202 | 19% | | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1054.6 vs 1042.6 has a 51.73% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).