Taking Heads
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 177 (53 on the archive and 124 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 89
Defender wins (American): 88
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 949 | 949 | 50% | 2026-01-04 | Won |
| 1018 | 1200 | 26% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1083 | 42% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1256 | 44% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1018 | 71% | 2024-10-06 | Won |
| 879 | 1081 | 24% | 2024-09-30 | Lost |
| 969 | 1142 | 27% | 2024-09-28 | Lost |
| 999 | 1014 | 48% | 2024-09-10 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 948 | 980 | 45% | 2022-11-04 | Won |
| 1024 | 985 | 56% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 1107 | 1084 | 53% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1055 | 983 | 60% | 2021-11-27 | Lost |
| 967 | 1063 | 37% | 2021-11-13 | Lost |
| 928 | 971 | 44% | 2021-03-21 | Lost |
| 967 | 1035 | 40% | 2020-09-24 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1126 | 55% | 2020-08-08 | Won |
| 878 | 1102 | 22% | 2020-04-03 | Lost |
| 962 | 1089 | 32% | 2020-03-29 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1256 | 27% | 2020-03-22 | Lost |
| 1200 | 991 | 77% | 2020-03-21 | Won |
| 1073 | 1081 | 49% | 2018-11-03 | Won |
| 1079 | 826 | 81% | 2018-10-30 | Won |
| 962 | 1098 | 31% | 2018-10-06 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1081 | 61% | 2018-07-03 | Lost |
| 889 | 959 | 40% | 2018-06-22 | Won |
| 1216 | 1140 | 61% | 2018-06-10 | Lost |
| 1144 | 980 | 72% | 2018-05-10 | Won |
| 1024 | 1145 | 33% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-07-09 | Won |
| 969 | 1079 | 35% | 2017-03-26 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1076 | 53% | 2016-12-29 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1303 | 47% | 2016-08-09 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1138 | 70% | 2016-07-30 | Won |
| 847 | 870 | 47% | 2015-03-30 | Lost |
| 977 | 1098 | 33% | 2014-06-14 | Won |
| 1252 | 1060 | 75% | 2013-04-14 | Lost |
| 1252 | 1060 | 75% | 2013-03-10 | Lost |
| 928 | 766 | 72% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
| 1136 | 1027 | 65% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1180 | 1096 | 62% | 2011-07-29 | Won |
| 1019 | 889 | 68% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 1105 | 1063 | 56% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 959 | 1192 | 21% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 1203 | 1140 | 59% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1122 | 1019 | 64% | 2011-02-10 | Won |
| 1105 | 980 | 67% | 2011-01-20 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1260 | 25% | 2010-08-15 | Won |
| 1223 | 1123 | 64% | 2010-08-13 | Won |
| 1058 | 1017 | 56% | 2010-05-28 | Won |
| 920 | 1075 | 29% | 2010-03-12 | Won |
Attacking (27 wins) average ELOs: 1061.3 vs 1061.7 has a 49.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).