Taking Heads
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 181 (56 on the archive and 125 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Japanese): 92
Defender wins (American): 89
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1112 | 1150 | 45% | 2026-10-08 | | Won |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2026-01-04 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1230 | 31% | 2025-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2025-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1289 | 16% | 2025-03-15 | | Lost |
| 1177 | 1018 | 71% | 2024-10-06 | | Won |
| 841 | 1058 | 22% | 2024-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 1092 | 42% | 2024-09-28 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1019 | 44% | 2024-09-10 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1009 | 46% | 2024-05-19 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-11-04 | | Won |
| 1045 | 985 | 59% | 2022-07-16 | | Won |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2021-11-27 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2021-11-27 | | Lost |
| 932 | 1040 | 35% | 2021-11-13 | | Lost |
| 921 | 971 | 43% | 2021-03-21 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1036 | 40% | 2020-09-24 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-08-08 | | Won |
| 878 | 1102 | 22% | 2020-04-03 | | Lost |
| 945 | 991 | 43% | 2020-03-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1289 | 16% | 2020-03-22 | | Lost |
| 1230 | 991 | 80% | 2020-03-21 | | Won |
| 1073 | 1136 | 41% | 2018-11-03 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1000 | 68% | 2018-10-30 | | Won |
| 945 | 1133 | 25% | 2018-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1171 | 1136 | 55% | 2018-07-03 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 960 | 56% | 2018-06-22 | | Won |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2018-06-10 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-05-10 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2018-01-01 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-07-09 | | Won |
| 970 | 1134 | 28% | 2017-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1133 | 1000 | 68% | 2016-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1310 | 40% | 2016-08-09 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2016-07-30 | | Won |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2015-03-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2014-06-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2014-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2014-01-27 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1040 | 74% | 2013-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1040 | 74% | 2013-03-10 | | Lost |
| 921 | 1000 | 39% | 2012-12-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2011-10-08 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1096 | 56% | 2011-07-29 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2011-03-12 | | Won |
| 1183 | 1000 | 74% | 2011-03-12 | | Won |
| 960 | 1163 | 24% | 2011-03-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2011-02-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2011-02-10 | | Won |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2011-01-20 | | Lost |
| 1022 | 1169 | 30% | 2010-08-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2010-08-13 | | Won |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2010-05-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1062 | 41% | 2010-03-12 | | Won |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1047.6 vs 1058.5 has a 48.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).