The Black Ravens are Flying
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 85 (22 on the archive and 63 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 42
Defender wins (German (SS) / Hungarian ): 43
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 994 | 1046 | 43% | 2025-04-19 | Won |
| 1043 | 1085 | 44% | 2023-05-13 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2022-06-19 | Won |
| 963 | 1051 | 38% | 2022-05-15 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1178 | 43% | 2019-03-28 | Lost |
| 1028 | 940 | 62% | 2018-05-06 | Lost |
| 1337 | 1263 | 60% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 973 | 973 | 50% | 2017-07-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 1058 | 52% | 2017-04-21 | Won |
| 1146 | 1081 | 59% | 2015-01-07 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1099 | 43% | 2014-06-09 | Won |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2014-04-28 | Lost |
| 917 | 1070 | 29% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1114 | 52% | 2013-09-15 | Won |
| 1074 | 1010 | 59% | 2013-02-14 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1269 | 27% | 2013-01-26 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1074 | 51% | 2013-01-26 | Won |
| 1141 | 1275 | 32% | 2012-10-04 | Lost |
| 1180 | 969 | 77% | 2012-06-22 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1094 | 81% | 2012-06-22 | Won |
| 1034 | 943 | 63% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 965 | 748 | 78% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1078 vs 1072.2 has a 50.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).