The Black Ravens are Flying
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (20 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 37
Defender wins (German (SS) / Hungarian ): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 999 | 1045 | 43% | 2025-04-19 | Won |
| 1098 | 1143 | 44% | 2023-05-13 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1058 | 50% | 2022-06-19 | Won |
| 962 | 1010 | 43% | 2022-05-15 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1176 | 43% | 2019-03-28 | Lost |
| 1062 | 939 | 67% | 2018-05-06 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2017-07-18 | Won |
| 962 | 1110 | 30% | 2017-04-21 | Won |
| 1060 | 1028 | 55% | 2015-01-07 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1193 | 31% | 2014-06-09 | Won |
| 982 | 1221 | 20% | 2014-04-28 | Lost |
| 917 | 1067 | 30% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1114 | 52% | 2013-09-15 | Won |
| 1039 | 1010 | 54% | 2013-02-14 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1277 | 28% | 2013-01-26 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1039 | 53% | 2013-01-26 | Won |
| 1152 | 1254 | 36% | 2012-10-04 | Lost |
| 1146 | 969 | 73% | 2012-06-22 | Lost |
| 1034 | 947 | 62% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 998 | 748 | 81% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1046 vs 1066.2 has a 47.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).