The Black Ravens are Flying
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (21 on the archive and 62 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 41
Defender wins (German (SS) / Hungarian ): 42
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 997 | 1046 | 43% | 2025-04-19 | Won |
| 1072 | 1125 | 42% | 2023-05-13 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1095 | 50% | 2022-06-19 | Won |
| 963 | 1019 | 42% | 2022-05-15 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1179 | 44% | 2019-03-28 | Lost |
| 1053 | 939 | 66% | 2018-05-06 | Lost |
| 1338 | 1249 | 63% | 2017-10-02 | Lost |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2017-07-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 1058 | 52% | 2017-04-21 | Won |
| 1098 | 1020 | 61% | 2015-01-07 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1102 | 43% | 2014-06-09 | Won |
| 982 | 1217 | 21% | 2014-04-28 | Lost |
| 917 | 1071 | 29% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1114 | 52% | 2013-09-15 | Won |
| 1068 | 1010 | 58% | 2013-02-14 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1269 | 37% | 2013-01-26 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1068 | 48% | 2013-01-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 1276 | 31% | 2012-10-04 | Lost |
| 1176 | 970 | 77% | 2012-06-22 | Lost |
| 1034 | 943 | 63% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 903 | 749 | 71% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1068.4 vs 1071.2 has a 49.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).