Forging Spetsnaz
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (11 on the archive and 28 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 18
Defender wins (Japanese): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 952 | 61% | 2025-02-16 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2025-02-09 | | Won |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2023-10-07 | | Lost |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2023-09-01 | | Won |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2023-09-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2022-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1013 | 54% | 2020-08-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1157 | 29% | 2020-02-19 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 927 | 72% | 2019-01-17 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2018-10-02 | | Lost |
| 990 | 692 | 85% | 2017-01-06 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1031.9 vs 981.2 has a 57.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).