Ivan and the Three Bears
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 15 (7 on the archive and 8 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 14
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1088 | 42% | 2022-08-04 | | Won |
| 1218 | 1000 | 78% | 2017-05-19 | | Won |
| 1025 | 1209 | 26% | 2014-08-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2013-10-10 | | Won |
| 1098 | 1098 | 50% | 2013-10-10 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1100 | 55% | 2013-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1138 | 51% | 2013-10-09 | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1093.3 vs 1122.7 has a 45.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).