The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 125 (26 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 61
Defender wins (Japanese): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1203 | 954 | 81% | 2023-09-14 | Lost |
| 916 | 922 | 49% | 2021-11-18 | Won |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 954 | 1043 | 37% | 2021-11-16 | Lost |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1043 | 954 | 63% | 2021-11-09 | Won |
| 1130 | 954 | 73% | 2021-03-26 | Won |
| 741 | 1131 | 10% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
| 1131 | 741 | 90% | 2021-01-25 | Won |
| 1208 | 1123 | 62% | 2020-08-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2019-03-06 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1142 | 32% | 2018-08-04 | Lost |
| 925 | 898 | 54% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1145 | 741 | 91% | 2016-03-27 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1004 | 64% | 2015-10-10 | Won |
| 1051 | 1065 | 48% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 839 | 927 | 38% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 1090 | 967 | 67% | 2015-05-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1256 | 14% | 2015-04-06 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1333 | 21% | 2015-02-22 | Won |
| 1028 | 1026 | 50% | 2015-02-06 | Won |
| 1177 | 1151 | 54% | 2015-01-07 | Won |
| 1301 | 1009 | 84% | 2014-11-07 | Won |
| 942 | 1051 | 35% | 2014-10-27 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1057 | 54% | 2014-10-06 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1044.8 vs 1021.1 has a 53.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).