The Mubo Decision
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 131 (30 on the archive and 101 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 66
Defender wins (Japanese): 65
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1211 | 23% | 2025-11-10 | | Lost |
| 1136 | 1000 | 69% | 2025-11-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2025-10-26 | | Won |
| 1242 | 992 | 81% | 2025-01-11 | | Won |
| 1134 | 986 | 70% | 2023-09-14 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-11-18 | | Won |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2021-11-16 | | Lost |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2021-11-16 | | Lost |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2021-11-09 | | Won |
| 992 | 967 | 54% | 2021-11-09 | | Won |
| 1195 | 967 | 79% | 2021-03-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2021-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2021-01-25 | | Won |
| 1209 | 1023 | 74% | 2020-08-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2019-03-06 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1214 | 24% | 2018-08-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 898 | 64% | 2017-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 997 | 80% | 2016-05-28 | | Won |
| 1120 | 991 | 68% | 2015-10-10 | | Won |
| 1036 | 1147 | 35% | 2015-05-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2015-05-15 | | Won |
| 1116 | 962 | 71% | 2015-05-15 | | Won |
| 939 | 1272 | 13% | 2015-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1219 | 29% | 2015-02-22 | | Won |
| 1068 | 1012 | 58% | 2015-02-06 | | Won |
| 1163 | 1136 | 54% | 2015-01-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2014-11-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2014-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1060 | 41% | 2014-10-06 | | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1057.7 vs 1039 has a 52.69% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).