The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (39 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 46
Defender wins (Polish): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1019 | 993 | 54% | 2025-05-29 | Lost |
| 1062 | 1041 | 53% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 1062 | 993 | 60% | 2025-05-19 | Lost |
| 993 | 1062 | 40% | 2025-05-01 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1019 | 53% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 993 | 1019 | 46% | 2025-04-24 | Lost |
| 996 | 1001 | 49% | 2025-02-06 | Won |
| 1088 | 976 | 66% | 2025-01-06 | Won |
| 1030 | 1016 | 52% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1077 | 1085 | 49% | 2024-03-02 | Won |
| 1186 | 888 | 85% | 2023-11-28 | Won |
| 975 | 959 | 52% | 2023-11-18 | Lost |
| 999 | 987 | 52% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 1063 | 1095 | 45% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 911 | 950 | 44% | 2023-03-18 | Won |
| 904 | 971 | 40% | 2021-07-22 | Won |
| 1071 | 1049 | 53% | 2021-05-24 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1189 | 35% | 2021-04-02 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | Won |
| 881 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | Lost |
| 910 | 1006 | 37% | 2020-03-26 | Won |
| 1041 | 919 | 67% | 2020-03-17 | Won |
| 954 | 1075 | 33% | 2020-02-08 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1141 | 39% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 1153 | 1256 | 36% | 2019-08-17 | Won |
| 1014 | 1058 | 44% | 2019-05-13 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1136 | 36% | 2019-02-07 | Won |
| 1051 | 1204 | 29% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 964 | 1204 | 20% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1056 | 53% | 2017-10-15 | Won |
| 1116 | 995 | 67% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1116 | 995 | 67% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1116 | 995 | 67% | 2017-04-09 | Won |
| 1151 | 1026 | 67% | 2017-04-01 | Won |
| 1024 | 962 | 59% | 2016-11-16 | Won |
| 1229 | 980 | 81% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 980 | 1118 | 31% | 2016-04-05 | Won |
| 1031 | 1027 | 51% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1032 | 48% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1039.1 vs 1042.2 has a 49.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).