The Winter City
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (40 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Slovak): 47
Defender wins (Polish): 49
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1006 | 886 | 67% | 2026-09-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2026-06-10 | | Lost |
| 993 | 977 | 52% | 2025-05-29 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 977 | 57% | 2025-05-19 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1029 | 43% | 2025-05-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 993 | 51% | 2025-04-24 | | Lost |
| 977 | 993 | 48% | 2025-04-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2025-02-06 | | Won |
| 1089 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-01-06 | | Won |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-05-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 2024-03-02 | | Won |
| 1252 | 901 | 88% | 2023-11-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2023-11-18 | | Lost |
| 989 | 987 | 50% | 2023-04-13 | | Won |
| 1038 | 1111 | 40% | 2023-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2023-03-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2021-07-22 | | Won |
| 1068 | 1000 | 60% | 2021-05-24 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2021-04-02 | | Lost |
| 1045 | 1164 | 34% | 2021-02-10 | | Won |
| 880 | 1004 | 33% | 2021-01-11 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2020-03-26 | | Won |
| 1037 | 896 | 69% | 2020-03-17 | | Won |
| 953 | 1090 | 31% | 2020-02-08 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1182 | 34% | 2019-10-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1258 | 18% | 2019-08-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1085 | 38% | 2019-05-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2019-02-07 | | Won |
| 1030 | 1159 | 32% | 2018-12-28 | | Lost |
| 945 | 1159 | 23% | 2017-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1051 | 54% | 2017-10-15 | | Won |
| 1133 | 965 | 72% | 2017-04-09 | | Won |
| 1133 | 965 | 72% | 2017-04-09 | | Won |
| 1133 | 965 | 72% | 2017-04-09 | | Won |
| 1162 | 966 | 76% | 2017-04-01 | | Won |
| 1055 | 959 | 63% | 2016-11-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2016-04-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1078 | 39% | 2016-03-12 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1086 | 40% | | | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1029.8 vs 1028.1 has a 50.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).