The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49 (22 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 36
Defender wins (Polish): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1091 | 37% | 2024-11-04 | | Won |
| 1030 | 1152 | 33% | 2024-06-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 921 | 61% | 2021-02-28 | | Won |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2020-09-18 | | Lost |
| 1139 | 1284 | 30% | 2020-05-17 | | Lost |
| 1146 | 952 | 75% | 2019-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1146 | 952 | 75% | 2019-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1184 | 1000 | 74% | 2019-01-13 | | Won |
| 1080 | 1134 | 42% | 2018-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1039 | 1108 | 40% | 2018-09-27 | | Won |
| 1218 | 893 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | | Won |
| 1050 | 1038 | 52% | 2017-12-28 | | Won |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2017-07-09 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 987 | 79% | 2017-02-21 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2016-06-27 | | Won |
| 1343 | 990 | 88% | 2016-06-26 | | Won |
| 954 | 808 | 70% | 2016-06-24 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1134 | 40% | 2016-06-24 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1134 | 40% | 2016-06-23 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2016-06-05 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2016-06-04 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2016-03-28 | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1082.7 vs 1032.1 has a 57.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).