The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 47 (21 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 18
Defender wins (Polish): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1055 | 1156 | 36% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 864 | 927 | 41% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1028 | 1119 | 37% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 937 | 1256 | 14% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1153 | 990 | 72% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1153 | 990 | 72% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1154 | 934 | 78% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1074 | 1203 | 32% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1096 | 42% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1219 | 889 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 1063 | 1037 | 54% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 879 | 934 | 42% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1333 | 986 | 88% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1131 | 934 | 76% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 916 | 802 | 66% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1133 | 47% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1115 | 1133 | 47% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1131 | 934 | 76% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1131 | 1115 | 52% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 934 | 1131 | 24% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1072.3 vs 1037.7 has a 54.96% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).