The Road to Warsaw
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 49 (22 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 19
Defender wins (Polish): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1031 | 1032 | 50% | 2024-11-04 | Won |
| 1029 | 1076 | 43% | 2024-06-05 | Won |
| 863 | 965 | 36% | 2021-02-28 | Won |
| 1094 | 1135 | 44% | 2020-09-18 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1182 | 46% | 2020-05-17 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1003 | 67% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1003 | 67% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1175 | 983 | 75% | 2019-01-13 | Won |
| 1080 | 1090 | 49% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1107 | 40% | 2018-09-27 | Won |
| 1216 | 893 | 87% | 2018-01-30 | Won |
| 1029 | 1038 | 49% | 2017-12-28 | Won |
| 878 | 983 | 35% | 2017-07-09 | Lost |
| 1219 | 986 | 79% | 2017-02-21 | Won |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1344 | 990 | 88% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 998 | 786 | 77% | 2016-06-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1132 | 36% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1029 | 1132 | 36% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2016-06-05 | Won |
| 1143 | 1029 | 66% | 2016-06-04 | Won |
| 983 | 1143 | 28% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1084.9 vs 1029.7 has a 57.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).