Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (25 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2026-05-28 | Won |
| 1032 | 1031 | 50% | 2025-11-24 | Lost |
| 891 | 1006 | 34% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2025-01-23 | Lost |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1042 | 976 | 59% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1171 | 1219 | 43% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 780 | 976 | 24% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1128 | 50% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1141 | 48% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1047 | 68% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 1038 | 43% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 891 | 1012 | 33% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1162 | 1084 | 61% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 1047 | 1084 | 45% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1012 | 1020 | 49% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1070 | 49% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1126 | 1176 | 43% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1089 | 1126 | 45% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 1219 | 21% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1217 | 31% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 1146 | 41% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1084 | 987 | 64% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1317 | 1084 | 79% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1227 | 1121 | 65% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1075.3 vs 1076.8 has a 49.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).