Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (24 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (French): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1112 | 1112 | 50% | 2025-11-24 | Lost |
| 879 | 1050 | 27% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1122 | 40% | 2025-01-23 | Lost |
| 1084 | 998 | 62% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1006 | 59% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1090 | 1340 | 19% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 780 | 1013 | 21% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1129 | 47% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1151 | 50% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1206 | 731 | 94% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 1037 | 43% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 879 | 1013 | 32% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1029 | 67% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 731 | 1113 | 10% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1014 | 1082 | 40% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1073 | 41% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1110 | 1175 | 41% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1066 | 1110 | 44% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 993 | 1340 | 12% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1217 | 24% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 1078 | 50% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1029 | 993 | 55% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1265 | 1029 | 80% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1199 | 1126 | 60% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1044.7 vs 1086.1 has a 44.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).