Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (22 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (French): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 879 | 1050 | 27% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1041 | 55% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1047 | 56% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1096 | 1333 | 20% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 762 | 1043 | 17% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1162 | 1019 | 69% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1152 | 49% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1058 | 62% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 1037 | 43% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 879 | 1014 | 31% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1051 | 63% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 1058 | 1131 | 40% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1014 | 1082 | 40% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1070 | 44% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1162 | 1175 | 48% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1066 | 1162 | 37% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 993 | 1333 | 12% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1219 | 25% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1079 | 1065 | 52% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1247 | 1051 | 76% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1207 | 1127 | 61% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1059.1 vs 1102.7 has a 43.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).