Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (24 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 31
Defender wins (French): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1017 | 1016 | 50% | 2025-11-24 | Lost |
| 891 | 1021 | 32% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2025-01-23 | Lost |
| 1085 | 987 | 64% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1042 | 982 | 59% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1193 | 1215 | 47% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 780 | 999 | 22% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1128 | 49% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1141 | 52% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1119 | 57% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 989 | 1037 | 43% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 891 | 1012 | 33% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1162 | 969 | 75% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 1119 | 1131 | 48% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1013 | 1007 | 51% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1022 | 52% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1121 | 1176 | 42% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1089 | 1121 | 45% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 1215 | 22% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1218 | 23% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1080 | 1141 | 41% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 969 | 986 | 48% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1313 | 969 | 88% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1220 | 1121 | 64% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1062.9 vs 1077.2 has a 47.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).