Initial Skirmish
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (22 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (French): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 882 | 1050 | 28% | 2025-03-21 | Lost |
| 1072 | 1043 | 54% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1032 | 59% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1111 | 1313 | 24% | 2024-07-02 | Lost |
| 766 | 1032 | 18% | 2023-11-23 | Lost |
| 1161 | 1013 | 70% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-11-05 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1010 | 70% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 982 | 1037 | 42% | 2023-09-30 | Won |
| 882 | 993 | 35% | 2023-03-24 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1074 | 60% | 2022-03-25 | Won |
| 1010 | 1143 | 32% | 2021-10-24 | Won |
| 1014 | 1082 | 40% | 2021-01-30 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1118 | 39% | 2021-01-26 | Won |
| 1161 | 1168 | 49% | 2017-11-02 | Won |
| 1048 | 1161 | 34% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 992 | 1313 | 14% | 2016-12-27 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1221 | 25% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1079 | 1060 | 53% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2016-10-06 | Won |
| 1246 | 1074 | 73% | 2016-10-01 | Won |
| 1289 | 1127 | 72% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1062.9 vs 1100.7 has a 44.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).