A Real Barn Burner
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 233 (75 on the archive and 158 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 135
Defender wins (German): 98
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2025-11-10 | Won | |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-09-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2025-08-09 | Lost | |
| 993 | 1151 | 29% | 2025-08-07 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 991 | 63% | 2025-05-10 | Won | |
| 974 | 962 | 52% | 2025-04-15 | Lost | |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2023-11-09 | Won | |
| 950 | 919 | 54% | 2023-01-21 | Won | |
| 950 | 919 | 54% | 2023-01-21 | Won | |
| 1001 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-08-15 | Won | |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-06-15 | Won | |
| 944 | 1051 | 35% | 2022-06-14 | Won | |
| 943 | 1051 | 35% | 2022-04-10 | Lost | |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2022-01-17 | Won | |
| 976 | 999 | 47% | 2021-08-19 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2021-03-09 | Won | |
| 996 | 1000 | 49% | 2021-03-09 | Lost | |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-03-07 | Won | |
| 1077 | 1125 | 43% | 2021-02-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2021-01-12 | Lost | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2020-11-03 | Lost | |
| 982 | 931 | 57% | 2020-10-30 | Won | |
| 1087 | 940 | 70% | 2020-10-25 | Won | |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2020-09-30 | Lost | |
| 1172 | 1035 | 69% | 2020-09-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2020-07-18 | Lost | |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2020-04-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1099 | 36% | 2020-02-12 | Lost | |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2020-02-11 | Won | |
| 1141 | 1348 | 23% | 2019-11-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2019-10-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1080 | 39% | 2019-10-11 | Won | |
| 950 | 967 | 48% | 2019-07-20 | Won | |
| 995 | 1147 | 29% | 2019-05-05 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-12-29 | Lost | |
| 1119 | 1216 | 36% | 2018-12-14 | Won | |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2018-09-29 | Won | |
| 1140 | 964 | 73% | 2018-05-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2018-05-26 | Won | |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2018-05-24 | Won | |
| 1141 | 767 | 90% | 2018-05-22 | Won | |
| 962 | 1147 | 26% | 2018-03-25 | Lost | |
| 1119 | 1216 | 36% | 2018-03-03 | Won | |
| 1162 | 950 | 77% | 2017-12-03 | Won | |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2017-11-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2017-10-07 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2017-10-06 | Won | |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2017-10-06 | Won | |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2017-10-05 | Won | |
| 1067 | 1218 | 30% | 2017-10-04 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 1031 | 48% | 2017-09-07 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1211 | 23% | 2017-09-02 | Lost | |
| 1219 | 862 | 89% | 2017-09-01 | Won | |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2017-08-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 889 | 65% | 2017-07-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1164 | 28% | 2017-06-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2017-06-25 | Won | |
| 933 | 1000 | 40% | 2017-05-22 | Lost | |
| 1147 | 1009 | 69% | 2017-04-24 | Lost | |
| 1041 | 950 | 63% | 2017-04-18 | Won | |
| 1211 | 874 | 87% | 2017-04-08 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2017-04-08 | Lost | |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2017-04-08 | Won | |
| 1143 | 1241 | 36% | 2017-03-17 | Lost | |
| 1435 | 1019 | 92% | 2017-03-11 | Won | |
| 1060 | 1218 | 29% | 2017-03-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1025 | 46% | 2017-03-05 | Won | |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2017-03-04 | Won | |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2017-03-04 | Won | |
| 958 | 1050 | 37% | 2017-02-20 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1055 | 35% | 2017-02-16 | Lost | |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2017-01-14 | Won | |
| 1019 | 1120 | 36% | 2017-01-14 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2017-01-14 | Lost | |
| 1013 | 1070 | 42% | Won |
Attacking (45 wins) average ELOs: 1041.7 vs 1037.9 has a 50.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).