A Simple Solution
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (13 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 21
Defender wins (German): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1034 | 1034 | 50% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1084 | 1036 | 57% | 2020-05-22 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1043 | 61% | 2020-01-18 | Won |
| 959 | 1132 | 27% | 2019-06-21 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1094 | 62% | 2019-04-11 | Lost |
| 861 | 1058 | 24% | 2019-02-27 | Won |
| 920 | 903 | 52% | 2019-01-19 | Lost |
| 1189 | 959 | 79% | 2017-12-07 | Lost |
| 925 | 1075 | 30% | 2017-11-19 | Won |
| 1132 | 959 | 73% | 2017-11-10 | Won |
| 1057 | 1089 | 45% | 2017-02-17 | Won |
| 1209 | 1080 | 68% | 2017-01-14 | Lost |
| 1117 | 957 | 72% | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1060.5 vs 1032.2 has a 54.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).