Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (19 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 36
Defender wins (German): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1042 | 1126 | 38% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 1021 | 1050 | 46% | 2023-07-24 | Lost |
| 930 | 1004 | 40% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1004 | 930 | 60% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 958 | 883 | 61% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 998 | 1030 | 45% | 2022-07-24 | Won |
| 953 | 1134 | 26% | 2022-06-07 | Won |
| 1030 | 948 | 62% | 2022-04-24 | Won |
| 1015 | 991 | 53% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 1126 | 1117 | 51% | 2020-07-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 989 | 57% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 958 | 924 | 55% | 2020-03-08 | Won |
| 988 | 1188 | 24% | 2019-11-04 | Lost |
| 1167 | 970 | 76% | 2019-06-03 | Won |
| 1126 | 1086 | 56% | 2019-04-27 | Won |
| 1126 | 1086 | 56% | 2019-01-26 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1007 | 50% | 2019-01-12 | Lost |
| 958 | 1014 | 42% | 2018-07-27 | Won |
| 932 | 1126 | 25% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1019.8 vs 1031.7 has a 48.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).