Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (19 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 36
Defender wins (German): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 959 | 62% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 1021 | 1050 | 46% | 2023-07-24 | Lost |
| 939 | 1004 | 41% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1004 | 939 | 59% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 903 | 1003 | 36% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 998 | 1018 | 47% | 2022-07-24 | Won |
| 952 | 1116 | 28% | 2022-06-07 | Won |
| 1003 | 943 | 59% | 2022-04-24 | Won |
| 1055 | 991 | 59% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 959 | 1132 | 27% | 2020-07-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 989 | 57% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 903 | 924 | 47% | 2020-03-08 | Won |
| 988 | 1219 | 21% | 2019-11-04 | Lost |
| 1157 | 967 | 75% | 2019-06-03 | Won |
| 959 | 1085 | 33% | 2019-04-27 | Won |
| 959 | 1085 | 33% | 2019-01-26 | Lost |
| 1008 | 989 | 53% | 2019-01-12 | Lost |
| 903 | 1015 | 34% | 2018-07-27 | Won |
| 932 | 959 | 46% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 985.3 vs 1020.4 has a 44.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).