Gavin Take
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 65 (19 on the archive and 46 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 36
Defender wins (German): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 741 | 85% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 1021 | 1050 | 46% | 2023-07-24 | Lost |
| 939 | 1004 | 41% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 1004 | 939 | 59% | 2023-02-07 | Lost |
| 951 | 885 | 59% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 998 | 1041 | 44% | 2022-07-24 | Won |
| 953 | 1123 | 27% | 2022-06-07 | Won |
| 1030 | 949 | 61% | 2022-04-24 | Won |
| 1015 | 991 | 53% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 741 | 1131 | 10% | 2020-07-16 | Won |
| 1036 | 989 | 57% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 924 | 54% | 2020-03-08 | Won |
| 988 | 1203 | 22% | 2019-11-04 | Lost |
| 1133 | 971 | 72% | 2019-06-03 | Won |
| 741 | 1086 | 12% | 2019-04-27 | Won |
| 741 | 1086 | 12% | 2019-01-26 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1006 | 50% | 2019-01-12 | Lost |
| 951 | 1015 | 41% | 2018-07-27 | Won |
| 932 | 741 | 75% | 2017-05-22 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 956.5 vs 993.4 has a 44.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).