As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (28 on the archive and 68 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 50
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1078 | 1060 | 53% | 2025-10-02 | Won |
| 1009 | 981 | 54% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1144 | 868 | 83% | 2025-01-03 | Lost |
| 977 | 995 | 47% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 985 | 1218 | 21% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 986 | 875 | 65% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1036 | 969 | 60% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 1042 | 970 | 60% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1099 | 1015 | 62% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 884 | 919 | 45% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1136 | 1276 | 31% | 2020-04-24 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1038 | 49% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 862 | 1117 | 19% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 981 | 52% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 1144 | 975 | 73% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1144 | 975 | 73% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 879 | 1144 | 18% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1344 | 1100 | 80% | 2019-06-20 | Won |
| 1252 | 1157 | 63% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1238 | 1144 | 63% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1093 | 970 | 67% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1069 | 983 | 62% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 900 | 1108 | 23% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1220 | 1113 | 65% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1113 | 65% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1018 | 56% | | Lost |
| 879 | 1018 | 31% | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1063.9 vs 1042.4 has a 53.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).