As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (30 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 52
Defender wins (British): 46
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1198 | 1004 | 75% | 2026-06-17 | Lost |
| 1000 | 855 | 70% | 2026-06-16 | Won |
| 1075 | 1070 | 51% | 2025-10-02 | Won |
| 1005 | 988 | 52% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 1051 | 868 | 74% | 2025-01-03 | Lost |
| 977 | 1022 | 44% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 972 | 1218 | 20% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 986 | 875 | 65% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1036 | 998 | 55% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 1048 | 976 | 60% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1110 | 967 | 69% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 884 | 928 | 44% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1132 | 1275 | 31% | 2020-04-24 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1037 | 56% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 862 | 1146 | 16% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 988 | 51% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 1051 | 975 | 61% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 1051 | 975 | 61% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 878 | 1051 | 27% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1342 | 1100 | 80% | 2019-06-20 | Won |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1051 | 67% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1050 | 997 | 58% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1069 | 1084 | 48% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 1127 | 946 | 74% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1220 | 1123 | 64% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1123 | 64% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1078 | 41% | | Lost |
| 877 | 1078 | 24% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1059.5 vs 1035.2 has a 53.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).