As Luck Would Have It
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 94 (27 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (British): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1080 | 1046 | 55% | 2025-10-02 | Won |
| 984 | 983 | 50% | 2025-06-20 | Lost |
| 731 | 868 | 31% | 2025-01-03 | Lost |
| 976 | 1032 | 42% | 2024-05-17 | Won |
| 1001 | 1180 | 26% | 2024-05-09 | Lost |
| 993 | 875 | 66% | 2022-04-02 | Won |
| 1011 | 1020 | 49% | 2021-07-10 | Won |
| 1073 | 970 | 64% | 2021-03-03 | Won |
| 1084 | 1023 | 59% | 2020-07-27 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-07-08 | Won |
| 886 | 927 | 44% | 2020-06-18 | Won |
| 1135 | 1255 | 33% | 2020-04-24 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1019 | 49% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 861 | 1078 | 22% | 2019-09-05 | Lost |
| 993 | 983 | 51% | 2019-08-17 | Lost |
| 731 | 975 | 20% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 731 | 975 | 20% | 2019-07-28 | Won |
| 879 | 731 | 70% | 2019-07-27 | Tied |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2019-04-18 | Lost |
| 1206 | 731 | 94% | 2019-04-07 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1009 | 57% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1068 | 1029 | 56% | 2019-02-28 | Lost |
| 997 | 1009 | 48% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
| 1220 | 1154 | 59% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1154 | 59% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1118 | 37% | | Lost |
| 878 | 1118 | 20% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1009.4 vs 1016.3 has a 49.01% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).