Feast Day
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (32 on the archive and 67 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 45
Defender wins (German): 54
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1107 | 1195 | 38% | 2026-03-08 | Lost |
| 1107 | 952 | 71% | 2026-03-02 | Won |
| 982 | 1217 | 21% | 2025-09-29 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1143 | 67% | 2025-09-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1066 | 49% | 2025-05-16 | Won |
| 924 | 991 | 40% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 873 | 891 | 47% | 2025-04-25 | Lost |
| 933 | 970 | 45% | 2025-03-21 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2025-02-09 | Lost |
| 1046 | 844 | 76% | 2024-08-03 | Won |
| 1107 | 982 | 67% | 2024-06-21 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1019 | 56% | 2024-06-21 | Won |
| 985 | 1044 | 42% | 2023-08-04 | Won |
| 1057 | 1021 | 55% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 933 | 983 | 43% | 2020-11-29 | Lost |
| 993 | 971 | 53% | 2020-11-28 | Lost |
| 920 | 1010 | 37% | 2020-11-19 | Won |
| 1097 | 1155 | 42% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1097 | 1071 | 54% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1140 | 1034 | 65% | 2020-05-31 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2020-05-10 | Lost |
| 1218 | 985 | 79% | 2020-05-07 | Lost |
| 872 | 1058 | 26% | 2020-04-26 | Lost |
| 933 | 957 | 47% | 2020-04-25 | Lost |
| 1219 | 994 | 79% | 2020-04-07 | Won |
| 1136 | 1087 | 57% | 2020-04-02 | Won |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1201 | 1135 | 59% | 2020-02-27 | Won |
| 953 | 1126 | 27% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1044 | 47% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1217 | 21% | 2020-01-17 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1123 | 36% | 2020-01-17 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1035.7 vs 1049.3 has a 48.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).