Autumn Approach
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 52 (13 on the archive and 39 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 18
Defender wins (German): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 983 | 1069 | 38% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 891 | 869 | 53% | 2024-04-02 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1146 | 38% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 909 | 1066 | 29% | 2023-02-05 | Lost |
| 1178 | 901 | 83% | 2022-10-26 | Won |
| 940 | 960 | 47% | 2022-09-21 | Lost |
| 1128 | 1220 | 37% | 2022-02-18 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1172 | 34% | 2022-01-02 | Won |
| 1043 | 1047 | 49% | 2021-12-03 | Lost |
| 1027 | 999 | 54% | 2021-11-17 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1077 | 50% | 2021-10-01 | Lost |
| 1170 | 871 | 85% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 1175 | 968 | 77% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1049.4 vs 1028.1 has a 53.06% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).