Autumn Approach
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (13 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 17
Defender wins (German): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1093 | 1068 | 54% | 2025-08-24 | Won |
| 891 | 901 | 49% | 2024-04-02 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1171 | 32% | 2023-07-28 | Lost |
| 920 | 1075 | 29% | 2023-02-05 | Lost |
| 973 | 1070 | 36% | 2022-10-26 | Won |
| 941 | 960 | 47% | 2022-09-21 | Lost |
| 1112 | 1271 | 29% | 2022-02-18 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1173 | 34% | 2022-01-02 | Won |
| 1040 | 1047 | 49% | 2021-12-03 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1044 | 46% | 2021-11-17 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1066 | 51% | 2021-10-01 | Lost |
| 1190 | 917 | 83% | 2021-05-11 | Won |
| 1153 | 968 | 74% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1037.9 vs 1056.2 has a 47.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).