First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (11 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 37
Defender wins (Japanese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1040 | 52% | 2026-06-20 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2025-08-23 | | Lost |
| 977 | 1090 | 34% | 2025-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2025-06-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1021 | 47% | 2025-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2024-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1145 | 1018 | 68% | 2024-03-30 | | Tied |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2024-01-24 | | Won |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2023-09-08 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2023-07-07 | | Won |
| 944 | 1051 | 35% | 2022-01-23 | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1040.2 vs 1019 has a 53.04% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).