First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (11 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 37
Defender wins (Japanese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1045 | 1040 | 51% | 2026-06-20 | | Won |
| 1183 | 1000 | 74% | 2025-08-23 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1062 | 37% | 2025-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2025-06-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1021 | 47% | 2025-05-05 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1104 | 49% | 2024-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1018 | 68% | 2024-03-30 | | Tied |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2024-01-24 | | Won |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2023-09-08 | | Won |
| 1004 | 1004 | 50% | 2023-07-07 | | Won |
| 932 | 1040 | 35% | 2022-01-23 | | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1031.2 vs 1026.3 has a 50.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).