First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 67 (11 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 36
Defender wins (Japanese): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1046 | 1040 | 51% | 2026-06-20 | Won |
| 1167 | 951 | 78% | 2025-08-23 | Lost |
| 971 | 1073 | 36% | 2025-08-02 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1021 | 50% | 2025-06-17 | Won |
| 1021 | 1021 | 50% | 2025-05-05 | Lost |
| 1067 | 964 | 64% | 2024-09-20 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1017 | 68% | 2024-03-30 | Tied |
| 970 | 1056 | 38% | 2024-01-24 | Won |
| 970 | 1055 | 38% | 2023-09-08 | Won |
| 1030 | 1030 | 50% | 2023-07-07 | Won |
| 944 | 1107 | 28% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1032 vs 1030.5 has a 50.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).