Posts 9-11
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 8 (4 on the archive and 4 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Australian): 3
Defender wins (Italian): 4
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Australian): 0
Defender wins (Italian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 824 | 1177 | 12% | 2025-08-06 | Lost |
| 1186 | 1074 | 66% | 2023-12-30 | Won |
| 1010 | 1040 | 46% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 1093 | 991 | 64% | 2023-06-13 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1028.3 vs 1070.5 has a 43.95% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).