Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 141 (14 on the archive and 127 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 77
Defender wins (German): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1176 | 1200 | 47% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1035 | 1086 | 43% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1217 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 980 | 1144 | 28% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 981 | 928 | 58% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1169 | 49% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1015 | 77% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 931 | 1015 | 38% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1196 | 1140 | 58% | 2007-07-07 | Lost |
| 1054 | 995 | 58% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 1011 | 1045 | 45% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1170 | 49% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1070.1 vs 1079 has a 48.72% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).