Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 140 (14 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 77
Defender wins (German): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1132 | 1143 | 48% | 2023-07-10 | Won |
| 1026 | 1099 | 40% | 2023-07-01 | Lost |
| 940 | 940 | 50% | 2023-01-03 | Won |
| 1137 | 1221 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | Won |
| 805 | 1109 | 15% | 2017-03-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 928 | 58% | 2014-04-01 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1163 | 50% | 2010-09-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1011 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | Won |
| 931 | 1011 | 39% | 2009-03-09 | Won |
| 1196 | 1152 | 56% | 2007-07-07 | Lost |
| 973 | 1070 | 36% | 2003-09-19 | Won |
| 934 | 982 | 43% | 2001-09-06 | Won |
| 996 | 1002 | 49% | 2000-10-01 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1153 | 52% | 1999-12-20 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1043.4 vs 1070.3 has a 46.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).