Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 142 (15 on the archive and 127 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 78
Defender wins (German): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2025-09-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1196 | 24% | 2023-07-10 | | Won |
| 1044 | 1152 | 35% | 2023-07-01 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-01-03 | | Won |
| 1135 | 1218 | 38% | 2018-06-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2017-03-08 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2014-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1000 | 64% | 2010-09-23 | | Lost |
| 1233 | 1015 | 78% | 2009-03-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-03-09 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2007-07-07 | | Lost |
| 988 | 1057 | 40% | 2003-09-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2001-09-06 | | Won |
| 1029 | 1078 | 43% | 2000-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1160 | 1140 | 53% | 1999-12-20 | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1052.6 vs 1072.8 has a 47.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).