The Last Roadblock
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 119 (26 on the archive and 93 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 63
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 54
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 1117 | 50% | 2026-03-24 | Won |
| 1040 | 1064 | 47% | 2025-12-11 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1092 | 42% | 2024-07-31 | Won |
| 1080 | 1036 | 56% | 2023-06-28 | Won |
| 1044 | 1036 | 51% | 2023-06-27 | Won |
| 1061 | 1032 | 54% | 2023-02-06 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2021-09-24 | Won |
| 1038 | 1020 | 53% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 928 | 910 | 53% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-27 | Lost |
| 1061 | 948 | 66% | 2020-03-27 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1077 | 52% | 2017-09-11 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1112 | 66% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1080 | 70% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1227 | 945 | 84% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 1146 | 937 | 77% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2013-03-10 | Won |
| 1179 | 1083 | 63% | 2008-04-12 | Won |
| 1088 | 1025 | 59% | 2007-05-27 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1119 | 48% | 2005-10-08 | Tied |
| 1263 | 982 | 83% | 2003-06-28 | Won |
| 1002 | 907 | 63% | 2003-06-20 | Won |
| 907 | 1003 | 37% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1077 | 982 | 63% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 1344 | 892 | 93% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 1028 | 1141 | 34% | 2001-10-01 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1087.6 vs 1018.6 has a 59.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).