The Last Roadblock
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 119 (26 on the archive and 93 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 63
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 54
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1061 | 1061 | 50% | 2026-03-24 | Won |
| 1040 | 1070 | 46% | 2025-12-11 | Lost |
| 988 | 1092 | 35% | 2024-07-31 | Won |
| 1080 | 988 | 63% | 2023-06-28 | Won |
| 1044 | 988 | 58% | 2023-06-27 | Won |
| 963 | 1097 | 32% | 2023-02-06 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2021-09-24 | Won |
| 1038 | 1007 | 54% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 888 | 910 | 47% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-27 | Lost |
| 963 | 948 | 52% | 2020-03-27 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1077 | 51% | 2017-09-11 | Lost |
| 1237 | 1170 | 60% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1237 | 1134 | 64% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1237 | 946 | 84% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 1129 | 946 | 74% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2013-03-10 | Won |
| 1188 | 1083 | 65% | 2008-04-12 | Won |
| 1089 | 1026 | 59% | 2007-05-27 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1159 | 43% | 2005-10-08 | Tied |
| 1263 | 982 | 83% | 2003-06-28 | Won |
| 1002 | 907 | 63% | 2003-06-20 | Won |
| 907 | 1003 | 37% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 1342 | 893 | 93% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 1028 | 1140 | 34% | 2001-10-01 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1073.5 vs 1021.3 has a 57.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).