The Last Roadblock
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 112 (20 on the archive and 92 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 55
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 55
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (French / Norwegian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1055 | 1142 | 38% | 2024-07-31 | Won |
| 1044 | 1055 | 48% | 2023-06-28 | Won |
| 1044 | 1055 | 48% | 2023-06-27 | Won |
| 1010 | 1045 | 45% | 2023-02-06 | Lost |
| 997 | 1049 | 43% | 2021-09-24 | Won |
| 1022 | 1082 | 41% | 2021-03-19 | Won |
| 899 | 980 | 39% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 1010 | 993 | 52% | 2020-07-27 | Lost |
| 1010 | 946 | 59% | 2020-03-27 | Lost |
| 1193 | 1065 | 68% | 2017-09-11 | Lost |
| 1289 | 1166 | 67% | 2017-06-24 | Lost |
| 1289 | 964 | 87% | 2016-06-25 | Won |
| 1060 | 877 | 74% | 2013-08-27 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2013-03-10 | Won |
| 1146 | 1081 | 59% | 2008-04-12 | Won |
| 1106 | 1115 | 49% | 2005-10-08 | Tied |
| 982 | 927 | 58% | 2003-06-20 | Won |
| 927 | 1004 | 39% | 2003-05-17 | Lost |
| 1037 | 982 | 58% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 1011 | 1152 | 31% | 2001-10-01 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1055.4 vs 1032.8 has a 53.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).