The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 229 (36 on the archive and 193 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 100
Defender wins (British): 129
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1033 | 1030 | 50% | 2025-09-10 | Won |
| 1012 | 1084 | 40% | 2025-07-29 | Lost |
| 986 | 1003 | 48% | 2025-01-10 | Won |
| 1015 | 981 | 55% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 1082 | 1028 | 58% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1191 | 54% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1203 | 52% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1275 | 33% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 996 | 1275 | 17% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1096 | 80% | 2018-08-17 | Won |
| 902 | 1183 | 17% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1067 | 49% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1138 | 52% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1009 | 1158 | 30% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 998 | 1016 | 47% | 2014-12-10 | Lost |
| 949 | 1226 | 17% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1136 | 1100 | 55% | 2014-07-01 | Won |
| 1006 | 1099 | 37% | 2014-03-21 | Won |
| 946 | 1063 | 34% | 2013-12-08 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1067 | 62% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 994 | 44% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1060 | 903 | 71% | 2010-03-17 | Won |
| 1048 | 1170 | 33% | 2010-02-26 | Lost |
| 1060 | 939 | 67% | 2009-08-01 | Won |
| 1226 | 1419 | 25% | 2008-05-18 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1084 | 57% | 2008-03-08 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1104 | 79% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1333 | 12% | 2006-03-24 | Won |
| 1207 | 1058 | 70% | 2006-03-17 | Lost |
| 1286 | 1333 | 43% | 2006-01-30 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1048 | 72% | 2005-07-27 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1048 | 47% | 2005-07-19 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1208 | 38% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2005-04-01 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1076.6 vs 1114.4 has a 44.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).