The Five Pound Prize
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 234 (40 on the archive and 194 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 103
Defender wins (British): 131
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1014 | 1023 | 49% | 2025-10-31 | Won |
| 1016 | 1042 | 46% | 2025-09-10 | Won |
| 980 | 1105 | 33% | 2025-07-29 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1335 | 43% | 2025-02-09 | Lost |
| 985 | 1035 | 43% | 2025-01-10 | Won |
| 1014 | 981 | 55% | 2024-06-14 | Won |
| 1081 | 1024 | 58% | 2022-08-05 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1191 | 48% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1204 | 47% | 2022-06-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1256 | 34% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1256 | 26% | 2021-02-01 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1157 | 63% | 2018-08-17 | Won |
| 930 | 1058 | 32% | 2018-01-20 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1067 | 44% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1143 | 50% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 972 | 1158 | 26% | 2016-01-15 | Won |
| 998 | 1016 | 47% | 2014-12-10 | Lost |
| 949 | 1226 | 17% | 2014-10-11 | Won |
| 1157 | 1096 | 59% | 2014-07-01 | Won |
| 1132 | 1283 | 30% | 2014-04-11 | Won |
| 1008 | 1098 | 37% | 2014-03-21 | Won |
| 948 | 1024 | 39% | 2013-12-08 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1071 | 62% | 2013-10-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 993 | 44% | 2013-04-06 | Lost |
| 1068 | 904 | 72% | 2010-03-17 | Won |
| 1068 | 1171 | 36% | 2010-02-26 | Lost |
| 1075 | 939 | 69% | 2009-08-01 | Won |
| 1225 | 1423 | 24% | 2008-05-18 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1105 | 55% | 2008-03-08 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1021 | 49% | 2007-05-12 | Lost |
| 1253 | 1096 | 71% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 982 | 1253 | 17% | 2006-03-24 | Won |
| 1211 | 1055 | 71% | 2006-03-17 | Lost |
| 1287 | 1253 | 55% | 2006-01-30 | Lost |
| 1265 | 1283 | 47% | 2005-11-20 | Lost |
| 1255 | 1068 | 75% | 2005-07-27 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1068 | 48% | 2005-07-19 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1209 | 28% | 2005-05-14 | Lost |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2005-04-01 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1081.1 vs 1121.3 has a 44.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).