The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (15 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 38
Defender wins (German): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1059 | 940 | 66% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1194 | 956 | 80% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1075 | 1135 | 41% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1137 | 43% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1001 | 52% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1193 | 983 | 77% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 1000 | 1027 | 46% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1189 | 25% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1193 | 758 | 92% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1059 | 1129 | 40% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1040 | 949 | 63% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1315 | 1298 | 52% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1036 | 1036 | 50% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1040 | 1093 | 42% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1040 | 1093 | 42% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1090.1 vs 1048.3 has a 56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).