The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (German): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1112 | 34% | 2026-07-17 | | Lost |
| 959 | 996 | 45% | 2026-07-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2024-06-15 | | Won |
| 1292 | 728 | 96% | 2020-08-03 | | Won |
| 1007 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1034 | 1000 | 55% | 2019-11-10 | | Lost |
| 1018 | 1218 | 24% | 2019-06-09 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 1008 | 56% | 2017-12-26 | | Won |
| 1141 | 964 | 73% | 2017-11-05 | | Won |
| 980 | 1008 | 46% | 2017-10-06 | | Lost |
| 961 | 1143 | 26% | 2017-08-17 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 780 | 89% | 2017-06-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1136 | 31% | 2017-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 994 | 59% | 2017-05-19 | | Won |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2017-04-25 | | Won |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2016-12-05 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2016-01-05 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2016-01-05 | | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1056.8 vs 1011.4 has a 56.5% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).