The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 76 (18 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 39
Defender wins (German): 37
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1018 | 1009 | 51% | 2026-07-17 | Lost |
| 958 | 1034 | 39% | 2026-07-17 | Won |
| 1157 | 922 | 79% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1303 | 851 | 93% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1110 | 1179 | 40% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1010 | 58% | 2019-11-10 | Lost |
| 948 | 1284 | 13% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1034 | 943 | 63% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1152 | 964 | 75% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 988 | 1128 | 31% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1187 | 30% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1152 | 760 | 91% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1132 | 1089 | 56% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1059 | 49% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1336 | 1138 | 76% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1073 | 920 | 71% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1049 | 1033 | 52% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1049 | 1033 | 52% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1089.6 vs 1030.2 has a 58.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).