The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 73 (15 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 38
Defender wins (German): 35
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 923 | 933 | 49% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1217 | 757 | 93% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1073 | 1109 | 45% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1217 | 24% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1039 | 48% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 964 | 73% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 980 | 1045 | 41% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 931 | 1102 | 27% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1140 | 733 | 91% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1132 | 1088 | 56% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1054 | 993 | 59% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1274 | 1420 | 30% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1068 | 1068 | 50% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1054 | 1031 | 53% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1054 | 1031 | 53% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1072.3 vs 1035.3 has a 55.3% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).