Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1135 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1330 | 17% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1244 | 1036 | 77% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1152 | 53% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1207 | 1257 | 43% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1064 | 58% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1193 | 25% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 762 | 82% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1138 | 951 | 75% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1141 | 999 | 69% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1065 | 44% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1065 | 46% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 1016 | 1131 | 34% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 907 | 996 | 37% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1333 | 1247 | 62% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 852 | 1043 | 25% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1073.5 vs 1088.8 has a 47.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).