Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 29
Defender wins (German): 28
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1132 | 30% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1347 | 18% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 952 | 64% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1179 | 31% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1182 | 56% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1065 | 45% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 994 | 1065 | 40% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1028 | 780 | 81% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1153 | 951 | 76% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 1060 | 63% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1146 | 32% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1146 | 37% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 999 | 1138 | 31% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 1011 | 999 | 52% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1219 | 1317 | 36% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 1187 | 1057 | 68% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1075.9 vs 1089.2 has a 48.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).