Operation Blackwater
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 57 (17 on the archive and 40 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 21
Defender wins (German): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 987 | 1124 | 31% | 2025-04-05 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1324 | 17% | 2024-10-10 | Lost |
| 1244 | 988 | 81% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1146 | 53% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 1289 | 1192 | 64% | 2024-03-12 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1064 | 50% | 2023-11-17 | Lost |
| 999 | 1196 | 24% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1029 | 767 | 82% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 1137 | 909 | 79% | 2017-12-01 | Won |
| 1182 | 994 | 75% | 2017-11-01 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1060 | 43% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1060 | 47% | 2017-10-07 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2017-08-25 | Won |
| 961 | 1143 | 26% | 2017-03-09 | Lost |
| 941 | 996 | 42% | 2017-03-02 | Won |
| 1314 | 1247 | 60% | 2016-11-25 | Won |
| 853 | 1043 | 25% | 2016-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1075.5 vs 1075.6 has a 49.97% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).