Goats to Lure the Tiger
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 20 (7 on the archive and 13 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German/Italian): 12
Defender wins (Free French): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 939 | 939 | 50% | 2026-03-22 | Won |
| 1077 | 1263 | 26% | 2025-06-27 | Won |
| 698 | 1031 | 13% | 2025-06-13 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1050 | 48% | 2024-04-21 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1142 | 45% | 2023-04-03 | Lost |
| 1031 | 986 | 56% | 2023-03-19 | Won |
| 1175 | 1070 | 65% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1009.6 vs 1068.7 has a 41.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).