Heart of Darkness
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (15 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (South African): 14
Defender wins (Italian): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2026-01-13 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2025-08-20 | Won |
| 1015 | 890 | 67% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 960 | 1048 | 38% | 2022-07-22 | Lost |
| 961 | 1216 | 19% | 2020-06-19 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1066 | 42% | 2020-06-01 | Lost |
| 967 | 994 | 46% | 2019-08-24 | Lost |
| 970 | 1234 | 18% | 2019-05-11 | Lost |
| 1004 | 982 | 53% | 2019-03-20 | Won |
| 1263 | 1024 | 80% | 2019-03-12 | Won |
| 1158 | 960 | 76% | 2019-02-18 | Won |
| 1131 | 960 | 73% | 2019-02-08 | Lost |
| 920 | 1070 | 30% | 2019-01-20 | Won |
| 1009 | 988 | 53% | 2019-01-18 | Won |
| 1199 | 1021 | 74% | 2018-12-18 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1041.2 vs 1033.7 has a 51.08% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).