Fuller's Folly
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 68 (24 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 32
Defender wins (German): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 964 | 55% | 2025-05-22 | Won |
| 1155 | 1155 | 50% | 2024-11-30 | Lost |
| 1026 | 987 | 56% | 2024-03-15 | Lost |
| 947 | 879 | 60% | 2022-11-22 | Won |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2022-04-10 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1093 | 41% | 2022-03-29 | Lost |
| 872 | 1203 | 13% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1093 | 41% | 2021-10-26 | Won |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2021-10-25 | Won |
| 1091 | 1228 | 31% | 2021-04-01 | Won |
| 1112 | 924 | 75% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1055 | 60% | 2020-11-25 | Won |
| 904 | 1333 | 8% | 2020-10-15 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1006 | 68% | 2020-07-17 | Won |
| 1054 | 1006 | 57% | 2020-03-14 | Won |
| 1131 | 741 | 90% | 2020-03-01 | Won |
| 1013 | 1074 | 41% | 2020-02-16 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1067 | 44% | 2020-02-09 | Lost |
| 984 | 1026 | 44% | 2020-01-18 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1099 | 53% | 2020-01-16 | Lost |
| 1210 | 1142 | 60% | 2020-01-01 | Won |
| 1145 | 741 | 91% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1104 | 57% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1219 | 24% | 2019-10-09 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1053.5 vs 1051.5 has a 50.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).